Thanks to John Young at www.cryptome.org for this one. It caused a lot of waves when it was first made public, for that reason and because its authenticity, Iíve published it here.

[8 pages.]

OFFICIAL USE ONLY


ANALYTIC THINKING AND PRESENTATION

FOR INTELLIGENCE PRODUCERS

Special Running for
Government Officials of
Japan

30 August - 3 September 93



Conducted By

Office of Training and Education


OFFICIAL USE ONLY

 


 

COURSE OBJECTIVES

This training is designed to help participants gain added skill in analytic thinking and in written and oral presentation through rigorous study of the principles of effective argumentation, expository composition, and oral briefing, and intensive drill in applying these principles in practical problem-solving situations and other exercises that simulate the challenges that intelligence analysts face. Upon completion of the course, the participants will have improved their ability to:

-- Define the analytic mission, which has much to do with the way analysts need to think, write, and speak.

-- Describe and use the "Conceptualization Process"-- a deliberate strategy by which analysts can crystallize, focus, and array effective lines of reasoning in all forms of finished intelligence.

-- Describe and use the expository writing style and explain the emphasis it places on structure, clarity, precision, brevity, vigor, and concreteness.

-- Produce drafts of selected finished intelligence items within specific time and format limits, using raw information.

-- Deliver analysis in a well-structured oral intelligence briefing.

-- Understand the role of Warning in intelligence and how it expands beyond analysts' regular interpretive and forecasting duties.

-- Understand our organization's standards and practices of personnel management and employee performance evaluation.

 


 

MONDAY, Day 1

 

 

0830-0900

Course Overview and Administration

The Course Director will discuss the course's scope, aims, content, and instructional method.

0900-1000

Orientation to the Organization

1000-1015

Break

1015-1200

Understanding the Analytic Mission

The nature of the intelligence analysis profession has much to do with the way analysts need to think and write. The instructor will seek to establish a clear and shared understanding of the analytic mission by examining the role of the analyst, the function of analysis, the concept of threshold, the substantive aim of finished intelligence, and the needs of policymakers and other consumers of finished intelligence.

1200-1300

Lunch

1300-1400

Conceptualizing and Crafting Intelligence

You will learn the conceptualization process -- a deliberate strategy by which to do analysis. This process allows you to crystallize, focus, and set forth cogent and compelling lines of reasoning. With this method you can "package" any intelligence product -- whether it's a paper you have to write or an oral briefing you have to give. You will practice the conceptualization process throughout the course.

1400-1415

Break

1415-1530

Communicating Through Analytic Writing

Expository writing is clear and concise communication that stresses above all else the importance of clear expressions and precise wording. The instructor will discuss these principles so that you can begin applying them in the course.

1530-1630

Focusing on What Consumers Need

Consumers of our products are busy people, and the time constraints they face influence the formats we use to present our analysis. We seek above all else to give our readers a bottom line -- one overall analytic message they can grasp quickly with no misunderstanding. We can speed the process by which we come up with this bottom line by using an approach called focusing. You will begin a series of exercises this afternoon to hone your ability to focus by making use of the conceptualization process and expository writing principles we have discussed today.

 

 

 


 

TUESDAY, Day 2

 

 

0830-1200

Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part I

Beginning now and continuing until noon, the class as a group will work with the instructor to learn how to use a methodical approach to analytic thinking and writing that we call the conceptualization process to crystallize, focus, and array effective argumentation. Students during this segment will apply the method in the first of a series of increasingly complex exercises designed to simulate the analytic thinking and writing challenges that analysts face when seeking to craft well-reasoned and well-written finished intelligence.

1200-1300

Lunch

1300-1630

Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part II

Each student will use the concepts and methods learned in the class thus far to conceptualize and draft a short four-paragraph item based on an analysis of raw information. This segment is designed to continue adding to the students' analytic thinking and writing skills, with emphasis on focus, organization, clarity, precision, and brevity.

 

 

 


 

WEDNESDAY, Day 3

 

 

0830-0930

Understanding the Structure of Analysis Publications

The instructor will discuss the shortform publication format for finished intelligence and explain how it exemplifies many of the features of the intermediate and longform formats. All three formats -- shortform, intermediate, and longform -- are the basis for structuring the full range of finished intelligence publications.

0930-1000

Preparing Topic-Sentence Outlines

Doing a topic-sentence outline saves you great amounts of time, effort, and frustration in preparing written drafts, The instructor will provide guidance on ways to use topic-sentence outlines to ensure orderly and logical presentation of material in finished intelligence products.

1000-1015

Break

1015-1630

Crafting Finished Intelligence: Part III

Beginning now and continuing through the rest of today, the students will use the concepts and methods learned in the class thus far to conceptualize and draft a shortform item based on an analysis of raw information. This segment is designed to continue adding to students' analytic thinking and writing skills by illustrating teaching points applicable to the planning and production of all forms of finished intelligence.

(Students will break for lunch from 1200 to 1300)

 

 

 


 

THURSDAY, Day 4

 

 

0830-0900

Review

0900-1000

Focusing Exercises

1000-1015

Break

1015-1115

Preparing and Delivering an Intelligence Briefing

We all need to make a point orally to someone or communicate our judgments and expertise to different audiences. This segment offers you principles and techniques for giving an effective oral presentation.

1115-1130

Break

1130-1200

Question and Discussion Session

1200-1300

Lunch

1300-1630

The Role of Warning in the Intelligence Mission

The speaker will lead the class in a discussion of the Warning function and examine how this builds upon and expands beyond analysts' regular interpretive and forecasting duties.[*]

 

 

 


 

FRIDAY, Day 5

 

[By hand] Mr. Martin Petersen ("Marty") senior manag[cropped]

0830-1030

Personnel Management and Employee Performance Evaluation

The speaker will discuss the concepts and methods behind good supervisory practices as we define them and will examine the ways that supervisors assess employees' job performance and potential for professional growth.

1030-1045

Break

1045-1200

Doing "Opportunity Analysis" and Dealing With Uncertainty

The speaker will address these special features and challenges of the analysis profession.

1200-1300

Lunch

1300-1400

Ensuring Analytic Integrity

As intelligence analysts, we have to understand the need for objectivity and balance and know how to recognize and avoid bias. We have to broaden our analytic approach to problems, avoid analytic pitfalls we face in making judgments, and deal with implicit or explicit pressure to slant analysis for policy reasons. This segment will explore these issues and examine ways of coping with them.

1400-1415

Break

1415-1430

Recommendations for Further Study

1430-1500

Review and Concluding Remarks

1500-1600

Administration and Students' End-of-Course Evaluation

 

 

 

 

Note on "warning function:"

From: "Allen Thomson" <thomsona@flash.net>
To: <intelforum@his.com>
Subject: Re: Warning Function
Date: Sat,
15 Jul 2000 14:32:29 -0500

John Young inquired,

What is "the Warning function?" The rest of the outline  is understandable but this is not.

Basically a call that something bad, or at least important, is likely to happen in the near future. Warning of war is the most dramatic example, but a warning of an impending coup in an important country would qualify.

The information can come either from specific sources or from compiled information.  In the US, there has been a National Intelligence Officer for Warning whose job was to coordinate various activities to try to avoid such embarrassments as Pearl Harbor -- I don't know whether the post still exists.


Intelligence Forum (http://www.intelforum.org) is sponsored by Intelligence and National Security, a Frank Cass journal (http://www.frankcass.com/jnls/ins.htm)